PROJECT DETAILS
FINAL REPORT to the Joint Fire Science Program
WHERE WAS THIS STUDY BEING CONDUCTED?
We selected five study areas that are managed primarily as wilderness: the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness in Idaho and Montana, Gila-Aldo Leopold Wilderness Complex in New Mexico, Yosemite and Sequoia-Kings Canyon National Parks in California, and Great Smoky Mountains National Park in Tennessee and North Carolina.
These study areas were selected for several reasons including: availability of fire history information and other data required for our analyses, local expertise and established fire use programs, and for prior collaborative relationships that we had with managers. All of the study areas had approved Fire Management Plans with designated WFU zones.
Please use the following map to click on a study area and read study area descriptions.
Distribution of precipitation is a key difference among our five study areas and the study areas will be described for the following precipitation patterns: Summer-dry, Summer-monsoon, and Summer-moist.The following graphs represent annual precipitation and temperature patterns for the five study areas. Please click on a graph for further details on precipitation & temperature patterns.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
We are used a GIS model, BurnPro, and the knowledge and experience of managers in each of our study areas to accomplish project objectives.
BurnPro is a GIS model that we developed to predict the annual probability of burning for every cell on a raster landscape. BurnPro considers ignitions, rate of fire spread, time available for fire spread, and topography, all in a spatial context. It uses topography, historic weather, current fuel model data and historic ignition locations to estimate the likelihood of burning given the speed and direction a fire might spread from any ignition point. The probability that fire will travel through space and time from an ignition source to any point on the landscape depends upon 1) the time required for fire to travel the distance from the ignition to the target, 2) the frequency distribution of fire-stopping weather events (e.g. heavy rains) within the fire season and 3) the time remaining in the fire season at that point. As such, it integrates the timing and location of ignitions, rate of spread of fire (as it is affected by fuels, topography and weather), length of fire season as it varies over elevation, and frequency of fire-stopping events (i.e., rain) during the fire season. It is intended to support long-term processes such as fire management planning. It is not suitable for most incident management applications, but can be useful for the type of pre-planning that supports the initial decision on whether or not to suppress a fire (the "go/no-go" decision). For more details on BurnPro, please view the following:
Presented Poster - "Using the probability of burning to plan for wildland fire"
Reproduction of poster presented at 2nd Annual International Wildland Fire Ecology and Fire Management Congress
Expert knowledge
We relied on fire management staff to evaluate the data we used as input to the model BurnPro and the assumptions we made in the model. From fire management staff, we also learned where the most important values at risk are, and where lightning ignitions are, or are not, likely to be considered for WFU. After presenting our analyses to management staff, we obtained feedback and took requests for additional analyses. In some cases, these additional analyses included revising the WFU zones to more accurately reflect 'on the ground' realities and potential FMP revisions (e.g., Yosemite National Park). We also compared our estimate of expected burn probability with their expectations for achieving fire management objectives. In at least one case (Great Smoky Mountains National Park), it was clear that stated fire and land management goals are not achievable with lightning ignitions.
RESULTS
For the WFU zones identified in Fire Management Plans, we estimated the probability of burning based on all natural ignitions in the study area. Ignitions falling outside of approved WFU zones were removed from the analysis and the probability of burning was recomputed. From these analyses we quantified the effect of eliminating the importation of fires that start on adjacent lands. We also combined the information on probability of burning with information on resource values to improve assessments of risks and benefits.
Evaluating Fire Management Plans.
Click Here to Enlarge Image
We used the model BurnPro to evaluate the risks, opportunities and challenges for WFU management in each study area. In particular, we used BurnPro to estimate the probability of burning from all lightning ignitions within the entire study area and compared this with the probability of burning from only potential WFU ignitions in areas where WFU is authorized in the Fire Management Plan (Table 5). By examining the difference between these two estimates, we highlighted places in the WFU zones where a natural fire regime would be dependent upon immigration of fires from outside the area. Through this comparison we identified those areas that are not likely to experience as much fire under current fire management strategies as they would under a natural fire regime. We used strategies outlined in the Fire Management Plan along with feedback from local managers to define potential WFU ignitions and the parameters necessary to run BurnPro for these analyses.
Identifying Risks & Opportunities.
In addition to our evaluation of Fire Management Plans, we took a more direct look at some of the risks and opportunities of WFU. These analyses varied among the study areas according to values-at-risk for each site and to site-specific requests. Please click on an image to view a larger version.
Our estimates of average annual probability of burning were overlaid with several values-at-risk to improve risk assessments. The estimates of probability of burning were also examined to determine where the greatest opportunities for WFU are. By overlaying our estimates with values-to-benefit, we identified where WFU is most likely to benefit specific resources.
PROJECT REPORTS & UPDATES
FINAL REPORT to the Joint Fire Science Program
HOW IS THIS INFORMATION BEING APPLIED?
This project directly addresses the research needs in Task 1 as described in Joint Fire Science Program's Request for Proposals (RFP),
2001-1 to:
- " ... evaluate the impacts of alternative management strategies" (specifically WFU) "on fire regimes in unroaded areas, wilderness areas, and other areas managed for similar purposes."
The information produced resulted in:
- " ... improved understanding of the options for restoring and managing fire in unroaded, wilderness, and similar areas"
- providing a " ... tool for evaluating and understanding management and restoration goals in unroaded, wilderness, and other areas with restricted access."
Estimates of probability of burning are being used to improve the prioritization of fire and resource management activities in several ways. For example, in Yosemite National Park, areas with high probability of burning will be prioritized for archeological surveys - these are areas where cultural and scientific values may be at high risk. In areas managed primarily for wilderness values, the probability of burning can be viewed in terms of opportunities to allow the natural process of fire to operate. High probabilities indicate where WFU opportunities are relatively common or frequent, while low probabilities indicate where opportunities are relatively rare. This information is useful for fire management planning and supporting the go/no-go decision.
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