Evaluating The Risks And Benefits Of Wildland Fire At The Landscape Scale

WHO: Anne Black, Carol Miller and Peter Landres - Leopold Institute

WHAT: We are developing a modeling tool that estimates the risks and benefits from wildland fire across landscapes. The model will help design fire and fuels management plans and identify areas on the landscape of highest priority for fuels treatment. This research involves the analysis of landscape-scale fire patterns and the factors influencing these patterns. This project is supported by the Joint Fire Science Program and the National Fire Plan.

Click Here to view our conceptual model for evaluating risks and benefits.

As part of this project, a comprehensive assessment of wildland fire management was conducted. This included a problem analysis based on the scientific literature, public policy and agency planning documents.
For further information on this project, Click Here. (New window will open)

WHEN: 1999-2004

WHERE: Selway Bitterroot Wilderness, MT and ID; Anaconda Pintler Wilderness, MT; and Sequoia-Kings Canyon National Park, CA

WHY: Decision-makers struggle to protect and preserve natural fire within wilderness while not allowing these fires to burn outside the wilderness boundary where they may destroy life and property. Because of this risk, socio-economic values outside wilderness have a large influence on the go/no-go decision to suppress wilderness fires. On the other hand, decision-makers do not have a way to weigh the tradeoffs of this risk-based decision against the potential benefits of wildland fire use or against the negative consequences of continued suppression. If we can make reasonable estimates of both the benefits and risks of allowing an ignition to burn, decision-makers will have a much stronger basis for their go/no-go decisions. In addition, decision-makers will be able to plan where management ignitions outside wilderness, and possibly within wilderness, will have the greatest benefit with the least risk. By providing a more complete and balanced picture of the consequences of the go/no-go decision, this research strives to help managers allow a more natural fire regime in wilderness.

PRODUCTS: Miller, C., P. B. Landres, and P. B. Alaback. 2000. Evaluating risks and benefits of wildland fire at landscape scales. In: Neuenschwander, L. F.; Ryan, K. C., comps. Proc. Crossing the Millennium: Integrating Spatial Technologies and Ecological Principles for a New Age in Fire Management; Moscow, ID: University of Idaho: 78-87.
Leopold Institute Publication #413 - Download this publication.

Miller, C. and P. B. Landres. In Press. Information needs for wildland fire and fuels management. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report RMRS - GTR - XXX.

Climate Drivers Of Fire And Fuel In The Northern Rockies: Past, Present And Future

WHO: Emily Heyerdahl, Matthew Rollins - Rocky Mountain Research Station; Penny Morgan - University of Idaho; Carol Miller - Leopold Institute

WHAT: This project will identify the climate drivers of regional fire and fuel dynamics in the northern Rockies. We will identify regional fire years from multicentury tree-ring reconstructions and multidecade digital fire atlases. We will reconstruct the occurrence of regional fire years from synchrony in fire-scars dates among at least 15 widely separated sites in the region (lead PI Heyerdahl). To elucidate present, i.e., 20th century, climate forcing of fires, we will use digitized fire atlases from at least 11 National Forests (lead PIs Morgan and Rollins). To investigate the future consequences of regionally synchronous fire years, we will use a simulation model parameterized with information derived from the fire-scar and fire atlas data (lead PI Miller).

WHEN: 2003-2006

WHERE: Payette, Boise, Sawtooth, Salmon-Challis, Idaho Panhandle, Clearwater, Nez-Perce, Flathead, Kootenai, Bitterroot and Lolo National Forests.

WHY: Regional fire events, like those that occurred in the northern Rockies in 1910, 1988, 1994, 2000, 2002, and 2003, typically occurred during years in which drought was similarly extensive. During such years, the threats to people and their property are highest because fires during these years quickly overwhelm our ability to suppress them. These events are also important for long term ecosystem dynamics as they can "reset" succession over large areas. Understanding these fire-climate relationships will allow us to assess how often, and why, regional fire events have occurred, how often they may occur in the future, and where and under what climatic conditions fire and fuels management are most likely to be successful.

Northern Rockies Climate and Fire project webpage - The project webpage provides more information about the objectives, methods, status, and products.

Variability In Fire Regimes Across Space And Time

WHO: Penny Morgan - University of Idaho; Carol Miller - Leopold Institute

WHAT: The goal of this research is to use existing data sets from the Selway-Bitterroot and Gila Wildernesses to explore and evaluate two alternative ways to characterize variability in fire frequency over space and through time. Variability in fire rotation will be quantified for each of the two wilderness areas. The efficacy of two alternative measures of variability will be compared based on interpretabiltiy and utility for describing fire regimes at landscape and regional scales.

WHEN: 2003-2006

WHY: Fire regimes are a description of fire patterns over space and time. Typically, fire regimes are described in terms of fire frequency through time, yet managers need information on fire regime characteristics over landscapes and regions, and these characteristics can vary widely across larger scales. An understanding of the variability in fire regimes over space and through time is critical, but largely lacking.

Comparing Fire Scar Analysis, Fire Atlas Records, And Fire Simulations

WHO: Calvin Farris and Tom Swetnam - University of Arizona; Carol Miller - Leopold Institute

WHAT: The primary objective of this research is to determine how fire regime parameters derived from fire-scarred trees and historical fire atlases differ from each other, and to assess how these differences might affect our understanding of past fire regimes.

WHEN: 2002-2004

WHERE: Saguaro-Rincon Mountain Wilderness, AZ

WHY: Fire management planning and the restoration of natural fire regimes depend on having a sound understanding of past fire regimes, as these provide important baseline or reference conditions. Several different methods can be used to reconstruct fire histories but each method uses data that encompass different spatial and temporal scales and resolution. As a result, each method may give a different "answer" or description of the past fire regime. If fire management plans are going to be based on the reference conditions derived from these different methods, we need to better understand how this information differs and how each method may bias our interpretation of historical conditions.

Click here to view a research update for this project - May 22, 2003 (pdf format)

NOTE: If you do not have Adobe Acrobat installed on your computer, you can view this presentation by downloading Acrobat Reader.

Click here to view an article featuring this fire history work by Calvin Farris in the ARIZONA DAILY STAR (Sunday October 5, 2003).

Fire Suppression in Ponderosa Pine/Douglas-fir Ecosystems and Effects on Soil Resource Partitioning

WHO: Anna Sala and Tom DeLuca - University of Montana; Carol Miller - Leopold Institute

WHAT: Leopold Institute is cooperating with University of Montana researchers to select sites for a project that will study the long term effects of fire suppression on water availability and N dynamics in ponderosa pine-Douglas-fir systems of the interior Northwest. This USDA NRI supported project will examine whether changes in vegetation structure and resource use efficiency resulting from fire exclusion reduces the availability of water and inorganic nitrogen in upper soil layers. Sites will be selected along a gradient of fire occurrence and will include sites within designated wilderness that have experienced up to 4 fires within the past 100 years.

WHEN: 2002-2005

WHERE: Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness and Frank Church-River of No Return Wilderness

WHY: The success of reintroducing fire may depend on the degree to which vegetation and soil processes have been altered in fire-excluded forests. It is therefore crucial to understand whether such changes have occurred and the underlying mechanisms for those changes.

Fire Management Strategies For Wilderness And Other Protected Wildlands: The Potential Contribution Of Landscape-Scale Analyses Of Fire History

WHO: Todd Kipfer and Lisa Graumlich - Montana State University; Carol Miller - Leopold Institute

WHAT: This project seeks to understand the factors that control the frequency, severity, and spread of natural fires across landscapes. Analysis of long term fire and climate patterns will be used in combination with simulation models to assess management options for fires and fuels in wildland ecosystems. Tree-ring based studies of fire history and long-term climate reconstructions will play a key role in this research.

WHEN: 2001-2003

WHERE: Various national forests and parks.

WHY: Fire exclusion in fire-prone ecosystems during the 20th century has caused changes in forest structure and composition, and these changes are thought to be responsible for increased risk of widespread severe wildland fires. To manage these altered forest ecosystems, we need to know how significantly 20th century fire exclusion has reduced fire frequencies and how the spatial and temporal variability has changed relative to the pre-20th century patterns. In addition, we need to understand how climatic variability, especially severe or prolonged droughts, affected pre-20th century fire regimes.

Can Wildland Fire Use (WFU) Restore Historical Fire Regimes In Wilderness And Other Unroaded Lands?

WHO: Carol Miller and Brett Davis - Leopold Institute

WHAT: This project will assess whether it is feasible to use naturally ignited wildland fire as a way to restore historical fire regimes in wilderness and other unroaded areas. This project is supported by the Joint Fire Science Program.

For further information and to view Project Presentation & Proposal, Click Here

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WHEN: 2002-2004

WHERE: Several Wilderness Areas and National Parks throughout the nation will be assessed, and the procedures developed here will be applicable to any wildland or unroaded area.

WHY: Current Federal Fire Policy encourages wildland fire use (WFU) for restoring natural fire dynamics and reducing hazardous wildland fuels. In many wilderness and other unroaded areas, however, current fuel conditions may preclude the use of wildland fire because of excessive risks to natural resource values within the wilderness or to social values in the adjacent wildland urban interface (WUI). In some areas, especially small wilderness areas with extensive WUI areas, WFU may never be feasible. Even in larger unroaded areas, human-caused ignitions are usually suppressed and there will always be an argument to suppress some natural ignitions because of these risks. Finally, ignitions outside of these areas that otherwise would immigrate into wilderness are usually suppressed, further limiting the amount of natural fire that can occur. Before investing limited time and resources in developing and implementing a fire management plan, wildland fire and fuels managers need information and tools to help them evaluate the feasibility of WFU as a fuel reduction strategy and as a method for the restoration of historical fire regimes.

Evaluating The Effects Of Management- Ignited Fire On The Influx Of Exotic Plants In Wilderness

WHO: Peter Landres - Leopold Institute

WHAT: This project is designed to determine whether exotic plants invade areas where management-ignited prescribed fires have been used to reduce fuels and restore a more natural fire regime.

WHEN: 2000-2003

WHERE: Frank Church River of No Return Wilderness, ID

WHY: Wilderness and fire managers want to restore the role of fire to wilderness after decades of fire suppression. In addition to natural ignitions, management-ignited fire is also being considered in wilderness. But many exotic plants are disturbance specialists and they currently surround most wildernesses, so there is great concern that fire will now allow these exotics a foothold from which they may spread throughout the wilderness, in effect trading one problem (lack of fire) for another (exotic plants). This research will give managers information about whether exotic plants are likely to invade naturally-ignited or management-ignited burn areas in wilderness, allowing them to analyze tradeoffs between restoring fire and the potential for introducing exotic plants, as well as planning mitigation strategies for these exotics in those areas where their invasion is most likely.

The Effects Of Wildland Fire And Biocontrols On Spotted Knapweed In Western Montana

WHO: Peter Landres - Leopold Institute; Ray Callaway - University of Montana

WHAT: The overall purpose of this agreement is to explore how wildland fire affects the establishment and growth of spotted knapweed in western Montana, how spotted knapweed subsequently affects native grasses, and whether biocontrol agents affect these interactions. Specific objectives of this research are to answer the following questions:

1. What is the effect of wildland fire on spotted knapweed biomass and reproduction?
2. Does biocontrol infection reduce spotted knapweed biomass and reproduction in the field?
3. Does biocontrol infection on spotted knapweed increase the biomass and reproduction of native grasses in the field?
4. Does wildland fire alter the direct effect of biocontrol infection on spotted knapweed fitness or the indirect effect of spotted knapweed biocontrol infection on native grasses?

WHEN: 2001-2006

WHERE: Bitterroot National Forest - Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness, MT

WHY: Invasive plant species are one of the greatest threats to wildlands in the United States. Disturbances such as fire create conditions that are favorable for exotic species invasion of native plant communities. These conditions include increased bare soil, reduced competition, and increased light and nutrient levels. The fires of 2000 created these conditions on nearly 1.5 million acres in the Northern and Intermountain Regions. Therefore the fires of 2000 potentially set the stage for an unprecedented expansion of established weeds and invasion of new weed species. This could lead to altered plant and animal communities, altered successional pathways, altered fire regimes, and reduced or eliminated Threatened and Endangered Species.

Click here to view a research update for this project - May 22, 2003 (pdf format)

NOTE: If you do not have Adobe Acrobat installed on your computer, you can view this presentation by downloading Acrobat Reader.

Effects Of Prescribed And Wildland Fire On Aquatic Ecosystems In Western Forests

WHO: David Pilliod and Steve Corn - Leopold Institute; Bruce Bury, Chris Pearl, and Erin Hyde - U.S. Geologic Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center

WHAT: The goal of this study is to quantify and compare the ecological consequences of the following fire conditions on stream ecosystems:

1. unburned forests (fires absent for at least 70 yrs)
2. prescribed understory fires
3. stand-replacement fires

We are using a multi-scale approach to compare treatments within and among streams across the northwestern United States.This project is supported by R1/R4 National Fire Plan Adaptive Management and Monitoring funds and the Joint Fire Science Program.

WHEN: 2001-2004

WHERE: South Fork Salmon and Big Creek drainages in central Idaho; Bitteroot Mountains in western Montana; Rogue River area of the Siskiyou Mountains near the Oregon-California border, Umpqua River area in southwestern Oregon, and Wallowa Mountains in northeastern Oregon.

WHY: Prescription burning and certain lightning-ignited wildland fires are increasingly important management tools used to reduce fuel loads and restore the ecological integrity of western forests. Despite the increased use of fire as a forest restoration tool, there is inadequate information on the ecological effects of prescribed and wildland fires, particularly in aquatic ecosystems. The lack of information on the effects of fire on fish and aquatic wildlife is a major impediment to developing and evaluating fire management policies. In addition, several amphibian and salmonid species in the mountainous regions of the western U.S. are declining, and thus understanding the effects of fire on aquatic ecosystems is increasingly important. Because stream communities often respond to disturbances in complex ways, this project will use multiple biotic and abiotic indicators to evaluate various fire conditions, including amphibians, invertebrates, periphyton, aquatic habitat conditions (temperature, water chemistry, discharge, sedimentation, and large woody debris) and riparian forests. The results of this study will provide critical information necessary for managers to:

1. evaluate the immediate and long-term effects of alternative fire management activities on stream ecosystems,
2. assess how fire management affects the ecological integrity of aquatic ecosystems, and
3. identify potential opportunities to better manage for threatened and endangered aquatic species.

For further information on this project, Click Here. (New window will open)

Simulation Of Wildland Fire Use (WFU) To Meet Restoration Objectives In Wilderness

WHO: Carol Miller - Leopold Institute; Russ Parsons and Bob Keane - Fire Sciences Lab

WHAT: This project will apply the simulation tool LANDSUM to investigate the feasibility and consequences of implementing WFU as a fire and fuels management strategy. The project focuses on the biophysical factors that may limit or enhance the effectiveness of WFU in meeting restoration objectives. Management scenarios that follow the guidelines of a current fire management plan will be simulated to determine if restoration objectives can be met by implementing the plan. Results from the simulations will provide justification for revision or continued implementation of the fire management plan.

WHEN: 2001-2002

WHERE: Selway Bitterroot Wilderness, MT and ID

WHY: Even the wildernesses with the most successful WFU programs may have unrealistic expectations for meeting restoration objectives. Simulating the effects of implementing a fire management plan can help managers anticipate long-term implications of their actions.

Assessing Accomplishments Of Wilderness Fire Restoration Programs

WHO: David Parsons - Leopold Institute

WHAT: This project was designed to evaluate progress made by the four wilderness management agencies in restoring fire as a natural process to wilderness ecosystems. Fire records together with changes in policy and management practices have been critically analyzed to both assess accomplishments and better understand the challenges facing efforts to manage and restore natural fire and fuels in wilderness.

WHEN: Ongoing

WHERE: All Federal wilderness areas

WHY: Growing concerns over the difficulties faced in managing fire and fuels in wilderness have raised questions as to whether the goal of restoring natural fire regimes is realistic. Increasing policy constraints, resulting in part from recent large fire years are requiring that many natural ignitions be suppressed and keeping prescribed fires from being ignited. An understanding of accomplishments and constraints is necessary to project the consequences of future fire management decisions.

Predicting Individual Residential Development Near Wilderness For Planning Fuel Treatments

WHO: Neal Christensen and Peter Landres - Leopold Institute

WHAT: The overall purpose of this project is to predict future rural development in the wildland-urban interface to allow fire management staff to plan fuels treatments that reduce risks to public safety and property.

WHEN: 2001-2003

WHERE: Portions of Ravalli County, MT, adjacent to the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness

WHY: One of the principal reasons that naturally-ignited fires in wilderness are suppressed is the perceived risk that these fires will run out of the wilderness and threaten lives and harm property. If fire staff could plan future fuels treatments to reduce this risk in areas that will likely become future wildland-urban interface areas, there is a greater likelihood that natural ignitions in wilderness will be allowed to burn unimpeded.

Mapping place meanings on the Bitterroot National Forest - a landscape-level assessment of social values input to fuel hazard reduction treatments

WHO: Alan Watson and Kari Gunderson - Leopold Institute

WHAT: Through semi-structured qualitative interviews of community members, this project seeks to develop an understanding of the range of personal and community values and meanings attached to the landscapes surrounding the Bitterroot Valley. The effect of Forest Service fire and fuels management actions on these values will be assessed. The project will develop quantitative descriptions of the relationships between community members and the Bitterroot landscape, and this information will help develop fuel treatment programs that reflect the social values of the local community.

WHEN: 2003-2004

WHERE: Ravalli County, MT

WHY: After the Bitterroot fires of 2000, an analysis of social impacts found: (1) there was a lack of trust in the Forest Service to make decisions that protected local values, and (2) there was a need to modify forest stewardship practices to reduce wildland fuels. If the Forest Service is to be successful in meeting fuels management objectives on the Bitterroot National Forest, the human values attached to these places must be understood and addressed.

Integrating Social Science Research With Wildland Fire Science And Management: Phase I

WHO: Tam Ubben and Hayley Hesseln - University of Montana; Alan Watson - Leopold Institute

WHAT: The aim of this research is to consider how social science data can be applied and merged with other fire science data to provide a more holistic understanding of the factors affecting landscapes. The project calls for a literature review and assessment, the identification of an expert team of both social scientists and fire researchers, and a study plan to guide future research.

WHEN: September 2001 - August 2003

WHERE: Bitterroot Valley, MT

WHY: While numerous studies have focused on the social acceptability of fire, community responses to fire, and public perception of fire, the data gathered from these studies have not been comprehensively and critically analyzed. The use of social science data for fire programs is generally unknown and these data have yet to be fully incorporated into planning and decision-making frameworks. Social indicators are becoming increasingly important in evaluating the tradeoffs between ecological sustainability, natural hazard, and human risk factors and should be included in fire management applications to provide comprehensive decision-making tools for managers.